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Global Capital Network Research

The Research Archive

Annual investment outlooks and market retrospectives, 2008 to 2027. Every report explains the mechanism behind what happened, names the evidence that would change the conclusion, and carries no unsourced statistics.

122
Reports
20
Years covered
6
Market tracks
The six tracks

Global & Multi-Asset

The anchor annual outlook. Capital formation, rates, exits and allocator behaviour, 2008 to 2027.

North America

US venture capital and private equity, from the formation of the late-stage private market to the cohort gap.

Asia-Pacific

A region driven by variables that do not correlate with geography, and the case against treating it as one market.

Europe

One diagnosis, tested across twelve years: the growth-stage gap is caused by the capital chain, not the ecosystem.

Asset Class

Private credit, secondaries, digital assets, real assets and AI, each tracked as a connected sequence.

Country Deep Dives

China, India, Japan, Singapore, the Gulf, Latin America, Israel, the UK and Southeast Asia.

Browse by year

2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
All reports
2027

Global Investment Outlook 2027 — After the Answer

By 2027 the AI capital cycle should have produced enough evidence to answer the return question. This outlook is about what follows in either case — because the interesting scenarios are not 'it worked' and 'it didn't'.

Global
Multi-Asset
Annual Outlook
Read
2027

US Venture Capital Outlook 2027 — The Missing Cohort Arrives

The companies that were not funded at seed in 2022 do not exist to raise Series B in 2027. That absence is now the defining feature of the US venture market, and it will be reported as strength.

North America
Venture Capital
Annual Outlook
Read
2027

Asia-Pacific Private Markets Outlook 2027 — The Derived Demand Test

The region's largest single exposure resolves in 2027, and it resolves in filings published on a different continent. That is an unusual position and it determines what a regional investor should actually be watching.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Annual Outlook
Read
2027

Latin America Venture Capital Outlook 2027 — Building Without the Tide

The imported capital that built Latin American venture is not coming back at 2021 scale. What gets built without it is a better test of the region than anything the boom produced.

Latin America
Venture Capital
Annual Outlook
Read
2027

Private Credit Outlook 2027 — Reading the Answer

A decade of deferral has to end somewhere. This outlook is about how to read the answer when it arrives — including the possibility that it arrives ambiguously, which is the most likely case and the one nobody has prepared for.

Global
Private Credit
Annual Outlook
Read
2027

Europe Investment Outlook 2027 — What a Decade of Diagnosis Is Worth

Europe has spent twelve years accumulating an unusually accurate diagnosis of its own constraints. 2027 is a reasonable point to ask what a correct diagnosis is worth when the treatment requires agreement among twenty-seven parties.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Annual Outlook
Read
2026

Global Investment Outlook 2026 — The Return Question

After three years of extraordinary capital commitment to artificial intelligence, 2026 is the year the question changes from how much is being invested to what it is returning. Everything else in the market is downstream of how that resolves.

Global
Multi-Asset
Annual Outlook
Read
2026

US Venture Capital Outlook 2026 — What Has to Happen

US venture capital enters 2026 with three unresolved problems that resolve on different timelines: an exit backlog five years deep, a thinning early-stage pipeline, and an AI capital cycle approaching its first real test. Only one of them can be fixed quickly.

North America
Venture Capital
Annual Outlook
Read
2026

Asia-Pacific Private Markets Outlook 2026 — What Each Market Is Waiting For

There is no single question facing Asia-Pacific private markets in 2026. Each major market is waiting on a different variable, and the most useful thing an outlook can do is say which one, and what evidence would settle it.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Annual Outlook
Read
2026

India Venture Capital Outlook 2026 — Priced for Execution

India's structural case is the strongest in the region and is substantially priced. That makes 2026 a year about execution rather than about the story — and the two require entirely different evidence.

Asia-Pacific
Venture Capital
Annual Outlook
Read
2026

Private Credit Outlook 2026 — The Cycle Arrives

For a decade private credit's central claims have been unfalsifiable in practice, because the conditions that would test them never arrived. That is changing. This report sets out what the test consists of and what evidence would settle each claim.

Global
Private Credit
Annual Outlook
Read
2026

Europe Investment Outlook 2026 — Three Constraints, One Question

Europe enters 2026 with an official diagnosis, a genuine comparative advantage in the categories that now matter, and the same capital constraint it has had for eleven years. Only one of those is new.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Annual Outlook
Read
2025

Global Investment Outlook 2025 — The Bifurcated Market

By 2025 there were effectively two markets operating under one name. Capital directed at artificial intelligence behaved as though conditions were abundant; capital directed at everything else behaved as though they were tight. Both were true simultaneously.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2025

US Venture Capital Report 2025 — Concentration

US venture capital in 2025 was more concentrated than at any point in its modern history — by category, by company, and by firm. Concentration of that degree changes what an index number means, and most of the year's commentary was reading numbers that no longer described the market.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2025

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2025 — Different Bifurcations

The bifurcation that split the US market in 2025 appeared across Asia-Pacific too, but along different lines in each market. The shape of a bifurcation tells you more about a market's structure than the fact of it.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2025

Singapore Venture Capital Report 2025 — The Exit Nobody Builds For

Southeast Asia solved capital formation. Money is available, funds are raised, companies get built. What the region has not solved is the other end — and a venture ecosystem without exits is a machine that converts capital into positions it cannot sell.

Southeast Asia
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2025

AI Investment Report 2025 — Where the Value Accrues

By 2025 the question about artificial intelligence had stopped being whether it works. It had become which layer of the stack captures the economics — and capital was being deployed across four incompatible answers at once.

Global
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2025

Europe Venture Capital Report 2025 — Funding What the State Wants

European venture in 2025 concentrated into defence, energy and industrial technology — categories where the customer is frequently a government. That changes the diligence, the timelines and the risk in ways the software playbook does not cover.

Europe
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2025

Latin America Venture Capital Report 2025 — After the Reckoning

Latin American venture capital rose faster and fell harder than almost any market in the 2021 cycle. What survived the correction is more informative than what was funded during it.

Latin America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2024

Global Investment Outlook 2024 — The Capex Turn

2024 was the year the AI trade stopped being about software margins and started being about physical infrastructure. That shift changed which investors could participate, what returns looked like, and how long capital had to be committed for.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2024

US Venture Capital Report 2024 — Two Markets

In 2024 US venture capital stopped behaving like one market. Rate cuts arrived and exits did not reopen, because the constraint had moved somewhere the rate cuts could not reach.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2024

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2024 — Positions in the Stack

The AI capital cycle reached Asia-Pacific mainly through the supply chain, which made the region's exposure fundamentally different from the West's. Owning the constraint is a better position than owning the application — until the constraint moves.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2024

Singapore Venture Capital Report 2024 — The Regional Balance Sheet

Singapore's venture numbers are the region's numbers wearing a Singapore label. Reading them correctly requires separating what is domiciled there from what is happening there — and the gap is where most of the useful information lives.

Southeast Asia
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2024

Private Credit Report 2024 — Systemic Scale, Untested Claims

By 2024 private credit was large enough that its behaviour under stress had become a question about the financial system rather than about an asset class. It had reached that scale without ever having been through a default cycle.

Global
Private Credit
Retrospective
Read
2024

Europe Investment Report 2024 — Competitiveness Becomes the Frame

For a decade Europe's structural problems were discussed by specialists. In 2024 they became the organising frame of European economic policy — which is the necessary condition for changing rules, and not remotely a sufficient one.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2024

Israel Venture Capital Report 2024 — The Specialist Ecosystem

Israel produces venture-backed companies at a rate far above its size and sells most of them before they scale. That is not a failure of ambition — it is what an ecosystem optimised for deep technology and early acquisition actually looks like.

Middle East & Africa
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2023

Global Investment Outlook 2023 — Narrow Leadership and the AI Pivot

2023 delivered strong index returns from a very small number of companies, a regional banking failure that did not become a crisis, and the arrival of a theme large enough to absorb capital regardless of the rate environment. The three are more connected than they appear.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2023

US Venture Capital Report 2023 — The Reset

By 2023 the deferrals had run out. The bridges converted, the runway extensions expired, and US venture capital finally priced the reality it had spent eighteen months postponing — while a single new category absorbed a disproportionate share of everything still being deployed.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2023

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2023 — The Reallocation Year

2023 was the year allocators stopped treating Asia-Pacific as one exposure. The unbundling of a single regional allocation into distinct country positions is the most consequential change in how the region is invested in a decade.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2023

India Venture Capital Report 2023 — The Funding Winter That Wasn't Uniform

India's 2023 contraction was widely reported as a funding winter. The more accurate description is a change in what gets funded — and the businesses that struggled were largely those whose models the market had already been questioning.

Asia-Pacific
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2023

Secondaries Market Report 2023 — The Only Door

With listings closed and sales scarce, secondaries stopped being one exit route among several and became the only one that worked. An asset class discovers what a market is really for when it is the last one open.

Global
Private Equity
Retrospective
Read
2023

Europe Venture Capital Report 2023 — The Tide Goes Out

Imported capital left, and the growth-stage gap reappeared exactly where the 2019 report said it was. Four years had passed, a record had been set, and nothing structural had changed.

Europe
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2022

Global Investment Outlook 2022 — The Rate Shock

2022 was the year the cost of money changed and every asset class had to reprice around it. The lasting story is not that markets fell — it is that stocks and bonds fell together, which broke the assumption most institutional portfolios were built on.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2022

US Venture Capital Report 2022 — The Repricing

US venture capital repriced in 2022, but not evenly and not at once. The correction moved from public markets to late stage to early stage over roughly eighteen months — and the delay itself created most of the year's confusion.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2022

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2022 — The Dollar Returns

The 2015 dollar mechanism returned in 2022 with far more force, and the region's response revealed how much had changed in seven years. Most of the change was preparation — and preparation is why a larger shock did less damage.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2022

UAE & Gulf Investment Report 2022 — Deploying a Surplus

In a year when capital was scarce almost everywhere, the Gulf had a surplus. What was done with it — and the constraint that made deploying it difficult — is the region's defining investment story.

Middle East & Africa
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2022

Private Credit Report 2022 — The Floating Rate Trap

Rising rates were supposed to be good for private credit, and for lenders they were. For borrowers, the same mechanism raised interest costs by more than half within a year — and the lender's yield and the borrower's distress are the same number.

Global
Private Credit
Retrospective
Read
2022

Europe Investment Report 2022 — The Input Nobody Modelled

Europe's industrial model rested on an input it had stopped treating as a variable. In 2022 energy became the binding constraint on an entire continent's competitiveness, and the assumption underneath a decade of investment analysis was exposed.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2021

Global Investment Outlook 2021 — Peak Liquidity

2021 produced the largest private capital deployment on record. Read forward it looks like a boom; read backward from 2022 it looks like the top. Both readings are correct, and the interesting question is what separated the companies that survived it from the ones that did not.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2021

US Venture Capital Report 2021 — The Speed Year

2021 was the year US venture capital stopped competing on judgement and started competing on speed. Understanding why that happened — and why it was rational for each individual participant — explains almost everything about the vintage that followed.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2021

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2021 — Regulation as a Repricing Event

While global markets repriced on interest rates, one of Asia-Pacific's largest markets repriced on regulation. The mechanism was entirely different and the lesson is more durable: policy risk is not a discount to apply, it is a variable to model.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2021

India Venture Capital Report 2021 — The Exit Opens

For a decade India's venture market had a funding problem it had largely solved and an exit problem it had not. In 2021 a series of domestic listings answered the harder question — and answered it in a way that changed what could be built there.

Asia-Pacific
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2021

Digital Assets Report 2021 — Institutional Arrival

The second cycle differed from the first in one respect that mattered: institutions participated. That changed the correlation profile, the infrastructure, and the regulatory stakes — while leaving the underlying valuation problem exactly where it was.

Global
Digital Assets
Retrospective
Read
2021

Europe Venture Capital Report 2021 — A Record Year on Borrowed Capital

European venture funding reached a record in 2021, and a large share of it came from investors whose reasons for being there had nothing to do with Europe. The gap the record appeared to close had only been papered over.

Europe
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2020

Global Investment Outlook 2020 — The Pandemic Year

2020 contained one of the fastest market collapses in modern history and one of the fastest recoveries, within the same calendar year. The lasting lesson is not about the virus — it is about what happens when policy response outruns economic damage.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2020

US Venture Capital Report 2020 — The Reversal

US venture capital spent the first quarter of 2020 preparing for a collapse that never arrived. By the fourth quarter it was the most favourable founder market in a decade — a reversal driven not by the economy but by the policy response to it.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2020

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2020 — Divergent Recoveries

Asia-Pacific experienced 2020 in more different ways than any other region — because the outcome depended on public health response, fiscal capacity and economic composition, and the region varies enormously on all three.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2020

Singapore Investment Report 2020 — A Base, Not a Market

Singapore's domestic market is too small to explain its role in regional capital flows. Its function is as infrastructure — legal, financial and operational — and 2020 demonstrated what that infrastructure is actually worth.

Southeast Asia
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2020

Private Credit Report 2020 — The Test That Wasn't

In March 2020 private credit faced the default cycle it had never been through. Six weeks later, policy support had removed it. The asset class emerged with a performance record that proved something — just not what it was widely taken to prove.

Global
Private Credit
Retrospective
Read
2020

Europe Investment Report 2020 — The Fiscal Taboo Breaks

Europe spent a decade insisting that joint debt issuance was constitutionally impossible. In 2020 it issued jointly. Whatever the amount, the precedent was the event — and precedents are what markets price.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2019

Global Investment Outlook 2019 — The Reckoning That Almost Happened

2019 was the year private valuations finally met public markets, and public markets said no. The correction that should have followed was interrupted by a pandemic and a liquidity flood — which is why the same reckoning had to happen again three years later.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2019

US Venture Capital Report 2019 — The IPO Reckoning

For a decade, US venture capital had operated without a functioning check on late-stage pricing. In 2019 the check arrived in the form of the public markets, and a great many marks did not survive contact with it.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2019

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2019 — Scale Meets Its Limits

Asia-Pacific's private markets spent the late 2010s funded on the assumption that scale would eventually produce profits. In 2019 that assumption was tested in several places at once, and the answers differed by market in ways that mattered.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2019

Japan Investment Report 2019 — The Gap Between Assets and Price

Japan offered something unusual in 2019: a large developed market where a substantial share of listed companies were valued at less than the assets they owned. The question was never whether the gap existed. It was what would close it.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2019

Secondaries Market Report 2019 — From Stigma to Strategy

The secondaries market spent two decades as the place distressed sellers went. By 2019 it had become the mechanism by which private markets manage time — which is a far more useful thing to be, and a far larger market.

Global
Private Equity
Retrospective
Read
2019

Europe Venture Capital Report 2019 — The Scale-Up Gap

Europe founds companies as well as anywhere. It funds them to scale considerably worse — and by 2019 the gap had been measured well enough to stop being an impression and start being a diagnosis.

Europe
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2018

Global Investment Outlook 2018 — The Volatility Unwind

In February 2018 a modest rise in volatility triggered losses far out of proportion to the underlying market move. It was the cleanest demonstration in a generation that positioning, not news, determines the size of a shock.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2018

US Venture Capital Report 2018 — The Megafund Era

In 2018 the size of the largest venture funds crossed a line that changed how the whole market priced. When a single fund can write cheques larger than a competitor's entire vehicle, the competition stops being about judgement.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2018

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2018 — Supply Chains Become Political

Trade measures in 2018 did less damage through tariffs than through uncertainty. A company cannot optimise a supply chain against rules that might change, and the cost of not deciding was larger than the cost of the tariffs themselves.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2018

Southeast Asia Venture Report 2018 — The Cost of Six Countries

Southeast Asia is described as a single market of 650 million people. It is not one market, and the difference between the description and the reality is the central fact about investing there.

Southeast Asia
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2018

Real Assets & Infrastructure Report 2018 — Buying a Cash Flow, Not a Sector

Infrastructure attracted enormous institutional capital on the strength of a promise: stable, inflation-linked, long-dated cash flows. The promise is real for a narrow set of assets and was extended to a much wider set that did not have it.

Global
Real Assets
Retrospective
Read
2018

Europe Investment Report 2018 — Regulation as an Export

Europe did not set the pace of technology in 2018. It set the rules — and because compliance is cheaper to apply globally than to apply selectively, those rules reached companies that had never sold a thing in Europe.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2017

Global Investment Outlook 2017 — Synchronised Calm

2017 was the rarest kind of year: growth accelerated nearly everywhere at once and volatility fell to historic lows. The lasting lesson is what that calm did to positioning — because the strategies that performed best were the ones that quietly assumed the calm would continue.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2017

US Private Equity Report 2017 — The Dry Powder Problem

US private equity entered 2017 with more committed uninvested capital than at any point in its history, and a smaller supply of assets to buy it with. What happened next is a case study in what capital abundance does to a disciplined industry.

North America
Private Equity
Retrospective
Read
2017

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2017 — The Mobile-First Divergence

In 2017 it became clear that Asia-Pacific's consumer internet was not a lagging version of the West's. It had skipped a generation of infrastructure and arrived somewhere structurally different — and Western investment frameworks kept misreading it.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2017

India Venture Capital Report 2017 — The Transplant Problem

India's venture market spent its formative years funded on business models imported from markets with several times the income per head. 2017 is when the arithmetic of that mismatch became unavoidable.

Asia-Pacific
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2017

Digital Assets Report 2017 — Pricing Without an Anchor

The 2017 cryptocurrency cycle is most useful not as a verdict on the technology but as a controlled experiment in how prices form when there is no cash flow to discount and no anchor to deviate from.

Global
Digital Assets
Retrospective
Read
2017

Europe Venture Capital Report 2017 — The Ecosystem Becomes Real

By 2017 European venture had stopped being an aspiration and started being an asset class. What it had not acquired was the thing that turns good companies into large ones — and the absence was structural, not cyclical.

Europe
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2016

Global Investment Outlook 2016 — The Year Polling Failed

Two political outcomes in 2016 defied the odds markets had assigned them, and in both cases the assets that were supposed to fall rose instead. The lasting lesson is not about politics — it is about the difference between predicting an event and predicting its market consequence.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2016

US Venture Capital Report 2016 — The Pause

2016 was the year US venture capital briefly reconsidered. Late-stage funding slowed, down rounds appeared, and the word 'unicorn' acquired an edge. The reconsideration lasted about eighteen months and taught the industry nothing that survived.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2016

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2016 — Capital That Wants to Leave

The defining Asia-Pacific story of 2016 was not a market move. It was the pressure of domestic capital seeking foreign assets, and what a government does when it decides that pressure has become a problem.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2016

UK Investment Report 2016 — Pricing an Unresolvable Question

The UK's referendum result created a question markets could not answer for years, and had to price immediately. What they did instead — split the adjustment between the currency and the equity market — is the most instructive thing about the episode.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2016

Private Credit Report 2016 — Where the Banks Left

Private credit did not grow because investors discovered it. It grew because post-crisis regulation made a category of lending uneconomic for banks, and the loans still needed making. Understanding that origin explains almost everything about the asset class since.

Global
Private Credit
Retrospective
Read
2016

Europe Investment Report 2016 — The Integration Premium Reprices

European assets had been priced on an assumption that integration only ever deepens. In 2016 a member state voted to leave, and the market had to work out what a reversible union is worth.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2015

Global Investment Outlook 2015 — Divergence

2015 was the year the post-crisis consensus broke apart. The US moved toward tightening while Europe and Japan expanded, China devalued, and oil collapsed — and the resulting divergence in policy became the dominant variable for the next several years.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2015

US Venture Capital Report 2015 — The Private Market Forms

2015 was the year US venture capital acquired a shadow public market: private companies large enough to be public, funded by investors who behaved like public investors, priced without any of the discipline a public market imposes.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2015

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2015 — The Region That Isn't One

Asia-Pacific is treated as an allocation category and is not an economic one. In 2015 that distinction became expensive, as the region's markets moved in opposite directions for reasons that had nothing in common.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2015

China Market Report 2015 — Leverage, Not Growth

The Chinese equity market's rise and fall in 2015 is usually explained by the economy. The evidence points somewhere simpler: it was a margin cycle, and reading it as an economic signal was a category error that cost people money.

Asia-Pacific
Public Markets
Retrospective
Read
2015

Private Equity Report 2015 — The Allocation Shift

Institutions increased private equity allocations sharply in this period, and the reason was not that private equity had improved. It was that the alternative had stopped working.

Global
Private Equity
Retrospective
Read
2015

Europe Investment Report 2015 — Liquidity Without Formation

Europe began large-scale asset purchases in 2015, years after the US. The money arrived. The companies did not — and understanding why is the question the next decade of European investment kept returning to.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2014

Global Investment Outlook 2014 — When the Marginal Barrel Changed Hands

Oil halved in six months without a recession, a war, or a demand collapse. The price fell because the supply curve had quietly changed shape — and the market that sets the world's most important price stopped being a cartel and became a cost curve.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2014

US Venture Capital Report 2014 — Paying for the Headline

By 2014 a late-stage round had two prices: the valuation everyone quoted and the structure nobody published. Investors had stopped competing on the first because they had found they could win on the second — and the bill for that arrives only in outcomes that disappoint.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2014

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2014 — The Window a Cheap Barrel Opens

A halving oil price handed the region's importers a transfer worth more than most stimulus programmes, and handed their governments something rarer: a moment when a fuel subsidy could be removed without anyone's fuel bill going up.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2014

China Market Report 2014 — Recognising the Debt You Already Owed

The most consequential Chinese policy of 2014 was not a stimulus or a rate cut. It was an audit — counting the local government debt that the vehicles described in 2009 had accumulated, and deciding to put it on a balance sheet where someone was responsible for it.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2014

Russia & Commodity Exporters Report 2014 — The Cycle Turns

The oil price halved in six months without a recession, a war closing a strait, or any single event to point at. What changed was that the marginal barrel stopped being a decade-long project and became a six-month one — and a decade of terms-of-trade gains reversed on it.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2014

Digital Assets Report 2014 — Custody Is the Whole Problem

The largest exchange failure of 2014 taught the asset class its founding lesson, and it had nothing to do with the technology. A bearer asset held by someone else is a claim on that someone — and if they lose it, there is no mechanism anywhere that gets it back.

Global
Digital Assets
Retrospective
Read
2014

Private Equity Report 2014 — Paying for the Recovery

By 2014 the crisis vintages had delivered exceptional returns and the industry was raising more money than ever on the strength of them. The difficulty is that those returns were earned buying cheaply, and the capital was being committed to buy expensively.

Global
Private Equity
Retrospective
Read
2014

Europe Investment Report 2014 — One Policy Rate, Nineteen Borrowing Costs

A small business in one member state paid several percentage points more than an identical business in another, under the same central bank and the same policy rate. That gap is the measure of a monetary union that had stopped transmitting — and closing it was the year's real project.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2013

Global Investment Outlook 2013 — The Cost of Being Misunderstood

A central banker suggested that asset purchases might eventually slow. No policy changed, no rate moved, nothing was actually done — and global bond markets repriced violently. 2013 is the year markets learned what forward guidance costs when it works.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2013

US Venture Capital Report 2013 — A Mark Is Not a Price

2013 gave the billion-dollar private company a name, and the name did more work than it should have. A private valuation is produced by one negotiation with one buyer on terms nobody publishes — which makes it a mark, and a mark behaves nothing like a price.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
Read
2013

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2013 — The Guarantee Nobody Wrote Down

Investors bought products that promised more than a deposit and disclosed less than a bond, on the understanding that someone would step in if they went wrong. Nobody had promised that. Everybody priced it.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2013

India Investment Report 2013 — What a Crisis Is Good For

India was among the economies hit hardest when capital reversed in 2013, and within eighteen months it had adopted an inflation-targeting framework, rebuilt its reserves and become the region's preferred market. The crisis did not cause the reforms. It removed the reasons for not making them.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2013

Private Credit Report 2013 — When the Retreat Became Permanent

Banks pulled back from mid-market lending in 2009 because they were damaged. By 2013 they were healthy and still not coming back, because the capital rules had made the business permanently uneconomic for them. That is when private credit stopped being an opportunity and became an industry.

Global
Private Credit
Retrospective
Read
2013

Emerging Market Debt Report 2013 — The Dollar Discovers Its Reach

The taper tantrum was triggered by a change in language, not in policy. What it revealed is that emerging markets had spent four years accumulating a liability whose price is set in Washington and whose revenue is earned in something else.

Global
Public Markets
Retrospective
Read
2013

Europe Investment Report 2013 — Deciding Who Pays When a Bank Fails

For five years the answer had been taxpayers, because the alternative was thought too dangerous. In 2013 a small member state imposed losses on bank creditors including large depositors, and the question of who stands behind a bank was answered differently for the first time.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2012

Global Investment Outlook 2012 — The Sentence That Repriced a Continent

In July 2012 a central banker said he would do whatever it took, and a sovereign debt crisis ended without a single bond being bought under the programme announced. That is not rhetoric working — it is a specific mechanism, and understanding it changes how you read every policy statement since.

Global
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2012

US Venture Capital Report 2012 — The Crunch Arrives on Schedule

The Series A shortage that arrived in 2012 had been arithmetically guaranteed since 2010. It got a name, a great deal of commentary, and almost no analysis of the fact that it was a capacity problem wearing the costume of a quality problem.

North America
Venture Capital
Retrospective
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2012

Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2012 — Who Pays for Rebalancing

Everyone agreed the region needed to consume more and invest less. The disagreement was never about the destination — it was that the investment share had been subsidised by households for two decades, and rebalancing meant taking the subsidy back from whoever had been receiving it.

Asia-Pacific
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
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2012

Indonesia Investment Report 2012 — Spending the Windfall on the Wrong Thing

A commodity boom handed Indonesia a decade of unusual fiscal room, and most of it went into fuel subsidies. The infrastructure that would have raised the economy's potential went unbuilt — and the bill for both decisions arrived together in 2013.

Southeast Asia
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
Read
2012

Spain & Banking Union Report 2012 — Whatever It Takes

Spain entered the crisis with less public debt than Germany and was nearly destroyed by it anyway. That inversion is what finally identified the disease as structural rather than fiscal — and produced a sentence that repriced a continent without a euro being spent.

Europe
Multi-Asset
Retrospective
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